This article is part of our series of articles focusing on the topic of safety, where we bring you hard facts and concrete insights about safety in the Dublin Metropolitan Region (DMR). To start off with, we list the DMR division as per An Garda Siochana in Table 1.
| Garda Division | Garda Station |
|---|---|
| DMR East | Blackrock, Cabinteely, Dun Laoghaire, Dundrum, Shankill |
| DMR North | Balbriggan, Ballymun, Clontarf, Coolock, Garristown, Howth, Lusk, Malahide, Raheny, Santry, Skerries, Swords |
| DMR North Central | Bridewell, Fitzgibbon St, Mountjoy, Store St |
| DMR South | Crumlin, Rathfarnham, Rathmines, Sundrive Rd, Tallaght, Terenure, |
| DMR South Central | Donnybrook, Irishtown, Kevin St, Kilmainham, Pearse St |
| DMR West | Ballyfermot, Blanchardstown, Cabra, Clondalkin, Finglas, Lucan, Rathcoole, Ronanstown |
Unadjusted Crime Data
CSO crime dataset consists of crime records at each Garda station from 2003 to 2020.
Figure 1 indicates that the total crime counts increased from 2003 to reach the peak at around 2008. The West had the highest crime counts between 2008-2014. Thereafter, North Central took the unglamorous position of being the hottest crime spot in Dublin, until 2020. Data for 2020 would be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Crime Data Adjusted for Population Size
Research has shown that there is a strong relationship between population size and crime levels. For example, see Establishing the Statistical Relationship Between Population Size and UCR Crime Rate and Population Size vs. Number of Crimes.
So, we used Irish Census exposure data to scale crime numbers per 10,000 population heads, i.e. hereafter we refer to the scaled crime count as the crime rate. We used the 2016 Census with the assumption that the relative population among the Garda districts level did not change drastically throughout the time period of this study.
Below, Figure 2 shows clear and consistent spikes in the crime rate in the inner city (North Central and South Central).
To put these statistics in simple terms:
- The crime rate has reduced by 30% in 2020 vs. 2019, possibly due to the Covid19 pandemic.
- Over the last 18 years, on average there are 15 crimes occurring every single day in Dublin.
- Crime is 5 times more likely to occur in the North inner city than in the East.
Interquartile Summary
To establish the baseline benchmark for our crime rate in Dublin we computed interquartile statistics. These are computations of the 25th, 50th (a.k.a. the median), and 75th percentile summary of crime rate for Dublin overall, by crime type. Boxplots of some crime types are shown in Figure 3; The interquartile are rectangular boxes.
This approach allows us to check for variability in the data. In other words, we can see whether a crime rate point is on the high or low side of Dublin’s crime scale. Interquartile provides us a broader view of the data than a single-point measurement baseline such as the average.
In up-coming articles we will deep-dive into the crime rates by DMR division relative to the aforementioned baseline.
